The End of Hyperglobalisation: The New Conditions for Economic and Financial Landscape

Flagship Session 1. Global and regional context: the end of the super-cycle of commodities prices?
• Global and regional context and challenges
• What instabilities can the low commodities prices raise? Will prices remain low for a sustained period of time? Can we consider it as the new normal? Is this the end of the shale revolution?
• Re-entry of Iran in the Global Energy Market
• Sovereign Wealth Funds under the stress? Budget deficit, Debt growth and currency devaluation
• Perspectives of Central Asia and Kazakhstan: Economic, Financial and Political dimension
• The New growth drivers: Eurasian Economic Union and New Silk Road as a new infrastructure boom

Moderator:  
Massimiliano Castelli, Managing Director, Head of Strategy, Global Sovereign Markets, UBS Global Asset Management

Opening remarks:
Marc Uzan, Executive Director, Reinventing Bretton-Woods Committee

Speakers:
Ayhan Kose, Director, Development Prospects Group, World Bank
Masood Ahmed, Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF
Bakhyt Sultanov, Minister of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Flagship Session 2. The Multiple Uncertainties and Volatilities in the Global Economy: Rising Risks of Instability
Key questions:
• Slowdown of global trade growth relative to GDP growth;
• US Monetary Policy normalization of interest rates: a gradual path?
• China’s New Normal: transition from investment and manufacturing to consumption and services
• Global Misallocation of capital, slowdown of investments and capital outflow from EM
• The Brexit dilemma: the major uncertainties for EU and a further drag on the Global economy?
• Interactions between markets and policies What’s new?
• Negative interest rates, the new convention of monetary policy? Currency wars? Implication for the stability of the banking and financial sector
• The return of capital controls?

Moderator:
Marc Uzan, Executive Director, Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee

Speakers:
Kuandyk Bishimbayev, Minister of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Jacob Frenkel, Chairman, JP Morgan Chase International, Governor of the Bank of Israel (1991-2000)
Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France (2003-2015), Vice-president of the Executive Board of ECB (1998–2002), Chairman of the Bank for International Settlements
Athanasios Orphanides, Professor of the Practice of Global Economics and Management, MIT, Governor of the Bank of Cyprus (2007-2012)

Flagship Session 3. A Growth Reset for Emerging Markets
Key questions:
•  What are the main characteristics and the key drivers of the slowdown?
​•  How are governments and businesses adapting to slow economic growth and what actions need to be taken to catalyze growth?
•  Preventing the resurgence of financial crisis in emerging markets;
•  Deep depreciations of emerging market currencies;
•  How to restart growth for emerging markets under new conditions?
•  Lifting productivity growth: the role of urbanization; 
•  Sustainable capital flow to emerging markets;
•  Use of buffers (SWF reserves and pension funds) and its implications for banks and capital flows;
•  What policy options should implement emerging economies to stabilize growth;
•  New growth model and structural reforms for emerging economies.

Moderator:
Ayhan Kose, Director, Development Prospects Group, World Bank 

Speakers:
Daron Acemoglu, Professor of Economics, MIT, winner of the 2005 John Bates Clark Medal
Jeffrey Sachs, Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University
Ivan Miklos, President of economic think - tank M.E.S.A. 10, Deputy Prime Minister of Slovakia (1998-2002, 2002-2006, 2010-2012), Minister of Finance of Slovakia (2002-2006, 2010-2012), Euromoney`s Finance Minister of the Year for 2004
Javier Guzman, Deputy Governor, Central Bank of Mexico
Erik Berglof, Director, Institute for Global Affairs, London School of Economics and Political Science 

Flagship Session 4. Monetary and Financial Challenges in Eurasia
Key questions:
• Policies for strengthening domestic currencies in Caucasus and Central Asia;
• Challenges for Central Asia and Caucasus in implementation of inflation targeting and free float regime;
• How macro prudential should be used in Eurasia?
• What are the implications for the financial and banking sector?
• Current instabilities and the downgrades in countries and banking ratings;
• Managing currency depreciation and currency mismatch: implication to corporate and banking sector of the region;
​• Is the RMB becoming more important in settlements and invoicing currency in Eurasia as a new anchor? What are the consequences for exchange rate regime and policy options?

Moderator:
Masood Ahmed, Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF 

Speakers:
Bembya Khulkhachiev, Director of the Financial Policy, Eurasian Economic Commission
Juha Kahkonen, Deputy Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF
Turalay Kenc, Professor, Chair of the Irving Fisher committee on Central bank statistics, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Turkey (2011-2016)
Athanasios Orphanides, Professor of the Practice of Global Economics and Management, MIT, Governor of the Bank of Cyprus (2007-2012)
Thomas Sargent, Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics, 2011 

Key questions:
• What are the conditions for private sector to operate in changing environment: great plunge in commodities prices, WTO membership and Eurasian Economic Union, One Belt One Road initiative;
• Can we consider the One Belt One Road strategy and the Eurasian Economic Union as growth drivers for the region that can lead the investment, technology, industry, private sector involvement, innovation and infrastructure boom?
• Can the New Silk Road be a growth driver for emerging markets and developing countries under the new economic realities?
• How local companies can benefit from increase investment from China? What should be the rules of engagement? Will an investment treaty be needed in the region?
• The role of new financial institutions in investment and private sector development (AIIB, New Development Bank BRICS, Silk Road Fund)
​• What should be done for a new wave of investments for a long-term economic growth? What are the next global economic drivers and how we can bring back the long-term growth?

Flagship Debates: The new business climate for the private sector: what are the rules of the game?

Moderator:
Mattia Romani, Managing Director, Country and Sector Economics, EBRD

Keynote speech:
Peter Frankopan, Senior Research Fellow at Worcester College, Oxford and Director of the Oxford Centre for Byzantine Research, Author “The Silk Roads: A New History of the World”

Speakers:
Zhu Surong, Managing Director, Silk Road Fund
Robert Vartevanian, Head of M&A & Financing, KPMG
Wencai Zhang, Vice-President of the Asian Development Bank
Jan Vapaavuori, Vice-President of the European Investment Bank, Minister of Economic Affairs of Finland (2012-2015)
Tatyana Valovaya, Member of the Board (Minister) on the Main Areas of Integration and Macroeconomics, Eurasian Economic Commission
Dmitry Pankin, Chairman, Eurasian Development Bank