Sustainable development of the Eurasian energy, water and transit potential
“Sustainable development of the Eurasian energy, water and transit potential"
1. Importance of the issue
On November 11, 2014 President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev appealed to the people of Kazakhstan with the Address "Nurly ZHOL - THE WAY TO THE FUTURE" in which outlined the main thrust of the new economic policy up to 2050:
1. Development of transport and logistics infrastructure;
2. Development of industrial infrastructure;
3. Development of energy infrastructure.
Transit potential of Kazakhstan. As Head of State emphasized: "Transport infrastructure - is the main system of our industrial economy and society. For Kazakhstan lines of communication are important in terms of its location between Europe and Asia, North and South. It is necessary to strengthen the capacity of the port of Aktau".
In order to develop transport and logistics infrastructure scientists from Kazakhstan, Russia and China developed target scientific and technical program "Scientific and technical substantiation of the highest possible option of the Eurasian transit through the territory of Kazakhstan". This program has received support the National Science Council.
The Head of State pays great importance to the maximum development of the transit potential of the country - "landmark project in this regard may be the construction of a new ship canal" Eurasia "from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea. This channel would be a powerful exit corridor across Central Asia to the sea through Russia".
Scientific and technical support of this Initiative is part of the program.
This program provides scientific and technical substantiation of the creation of the Caspian Sea international maritime hub, capable of providing Kazakhstan access to the world's oceans.
It is expected that the components of this hub will be:
1) shipping canal "Eurasia", connecting the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea;
2) shipping canal "Siberia-Asia" for the transfer of water from the northern Ob in the Amu Darya:
3) Iranian shipping canal "Caspian Sea – the Persian Gulf";
4) Turkmen shipping canal from the Azov Sea to the Caspian Sea.
It is assumed on the basis of three methods - Kazakh, Russian and Chinese to make a comparative evaluation of the best possible options for the transport of water and of the Eurasian transit through the territory of Kazakhstan.
At the panel session is planned to discuss interim results of the work of scientists.
Energy resources of Kazakhstan.
President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev in his Address 2014 "Kazakhstan's way - 2050: The common goal, common interests, common future" defined the main directions of development of Kazakhstan's energy sector:
" We will develop energy in its traditional forms. It is necessary to support the search and discovery of cleaning emissions of TES, universal energy savings based on the latest technologies in the workplace and at home. Recently, the top ten largest companies of the European Union publicly opposed the EU energy strategy adopted by the well-known concept of a green economy. During the four years of its implementation of the EU lost 51 gigawatts of power capacities. Working on the program of the green economy we should take into account these mistakes. "
Based on the analysis mistakes in the EU energy strategy of the international team of scientists from Kazakhstan, Russia, USA, Canada, China and other countries developed the project "National Strategy for Sustainable Energy Future Kazakhstan up to 2050".
This analysis shows that, despite the impressive technological advances, renewable energy with a few exceptions uncompetitive in comparison to traditional energy sources. The reason for the rapid development of renewable energy sources (RES) in the European Union was, first of all, a large-scale government support. During the economic crisis, these subsidies have become a heavy burden on the budgets and the EU population.
Taking this into account, the "National Strategy for Sustainable Energy Future Kazakhstan up to 2050" provides for the comprehensive development of the energy resources of Kazakhstan.
Water resources of Kazakhstan.
In the Address of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan "Strategy" Kazakhstan-2050" among the global challenges of the XXI century was marked an acute shortage of water in the world, acquiring most acute in Kazakhstan.
"Over the past 60 years on the planet potable water consumption has increased by 8 times. By mid-century, many countries will be forced to import water. Water - the very limited resources and the struggle for the possession of sources has become an important factor of geopolitics, being one of the causes of tension and conflict in the world. The problem of water supply is acute in our country. We do not have enough quality drinking water. A number of regions experience an acute need of water. There is a geopolitical aspect of this problem. Even now we are faced with the serious issue of water resources of transboundary rivers.
… By 2050 Kazakhstan must once and forever solve the problem of water supply».
Is it possible once and forever solve the problem of water supply in Kazakhstan?
Scientists at the Institute of Geography and Institute of Hydrogeology and Environmental Geoscience named after U.M. Ahmedsafina offer their solution to this problem through the construction of Trans-channel "Irtysh-Syrdarya" and maximum use of groundwater. They have developed target scientific and technical program "Water security of the Republic of Kazakhstan - the strategy of sustainable water supply," which also has received support the National Science Council.
Discussion of the scientific bases of rational use of surface and groundwater in Kazakhstan will be discussed at the panel session within the the 8 th Astana Economic Forum.
2. Existing debate, discussion, opinion, point of view.
Each year, within the Astana Economic Forum carried out measures in order to attract the international scientific community.
On the communication platform G-Global carried out online conference at which leading scientists from Kazakhstan, Russia, China, USA and Canada discuss issues of sustainable development of the Eurasian energy, water and transit potential.
Energy potential. Actual discussion for Kazakhstan "What to develop: renewable energy or traditional?"
In the "Concept of development of the fuel and energy complex of the Republic of Kazakhstan till 2030", according to the commission of the President were outlined the ways of development of traditional energy sources - coal, oil, natural gas and uranium.
However, the country has large reserves and non-traditional for our country energy sources such as oil shale, high-viscosity oil, natural bitumen, coal bed methane, brown coal and hydrothermal water.
Today and in the near term, given the large reserves in the country of coal, oil, natural gas and uranium, their inclusion in the fuel and energy complex of the country is not relevant and cost-effective.
However, reserves of coal, gas, oil and uranium are limited, and the calculations made in the project "National Strategy for Sustainable Energy Future of Kazakhstan up to 2050" shows that in the future arise need to include in turnover of non-conventional energy sources - oil shale, high-viscosity oil, natural bitumen, coalbed methane, brown coal and hydrothermal water.
And this is obvious, since the cost of exploration and development of oil, natural gas and uranium increases every year because easily recoverable reserves rapidly come to an end.
World experience shows that the introduction into circulation of alternative energy sources should be done on a scientific basis. In particular, the experience of the European Union for the development of renewable energy sources, confirms this.
Who exactly say when the cost per kilowatt of energy generated from traditional sources of energy will be equal to the cost of non-traditional?
The fact that such a time will come soon and there is no doubt. The cost of a kilowatt is growing every year and being much faster than it could be predicted even five years ago. For example, in Germany the cost of electricity produced by TPS is already equal to the cost of the wind.
We should have an answer to this question, and most importantly to be ready for the fact that none of the options you will not catch us by surprise.
For this purpose we must have a national strategy, supported by technology.
Transit potential. There is an opinion that Kazakhstan has no future in the development of water-transport transit, and should develop road and rail transit.
However, the Head of State has repeatedly spoke in favor of construction of the "Eurasia" canal, that would connect the Caspian and Black Sea, thereby providing output to Kazakhstan in the world's oceans.
In this regard, the scientists developed a model of the highest possible option of the Eurasian water transport transit through the territory of Kazakhstan.
As the basis of this model it is advisable to take the initiative of China "One belt one way" that Xi Jinping in November of 2014 proposed to implement the BRICS countries - Russia and India on the G-20 summit in Australia.
The basic element of this initiative is the development of waterway transit encircling the Eurasian continent.
To implement the initiative created a special bank that has $40 billion ready to invest in the project.
In February 2015 in Beijing was held a meeting of the foreign ministers of China, Russia and India to discuss the initiative "One belt one way."
Russian develops icebreaker fleet for the Northern Sea Route. China and Japan are also interested in its development and has already started to implement pilot projects on transport.
For comparison, if the distance traveled by ships from the port of Murmansk to port in Yokohama (Japan) through the Suez Canal is 12,840 nautical miles, the Northern Sea Route - is only 5770 nautical miles, i.e. more than two times shorter.
US by imposing their interests to the BRICS countries, offer Afghanistan as the main Eurasian transport hub initiative "One belt one way".
Kazakhstan has all chances to become the leading transport hub Eurasian transit. And in the country for much of this has already been done in practical terms.
Water potential. There are several options for addressing water security of Kazakhstan, including and Astana. There are projects of water supply pipeline from the capital channel "Irtysh-Karaganda", construction of the canal and reservoir Schiderty changing Selety at all.
Scientists of the Institute of Geography offer construction project Transkazahstan channel that can really solve the water problems of Kazakhstan once and forever.
3. What does forum offer?
Forum offers to discuss various options for sustainable development of the three potentials of the country.
4. Format of the discussion
Hearing of reports, discussion, adoption of the recommendations.
5. Keynote speakers
Berdibek Saparbaev, Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
Vladimir Shkolnik, Minister of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
Aslan Sarinzhipov, Minister of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan;
Anatoly Spitsin, Professor of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation, Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies of EurAsEC integration problems, Vice-President of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences (Russian Federation);
Samson Milstein, Professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Massachusetts Lowell (USA);
Nuraly Bekturganov, First Vice President of the Kazakhstan National Academy of Natural Sciences;
Liang Jun, Director General of "Sinohydro Inter" (China).
6. What do participants obtain?
7. The effect of the session
Adoption of the recommendations on the formation of the "National Strategy for Sustainable Energy Future of Kazakhstan up to 2050”.
Selecting the economically optimal variant of the route Trans-channel "Irtysh-Syrdarya" sustainable water supply for the city of Astana and other regions of the country.
Recommendations for cost-effective option Eurasian water-transport transit through the territory of Kazakhstan, with access to the world's oceans.
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