Economic, financial and monetary shifts in the global economy.

Time

Description

Part I. THE SEARCH FOR GROWTH

08:00-09:20

Welcome Breakfast (Venue: Restaurant, ground floor):

GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: THE MACRO-ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF COMMODITIES PRICE MOVEMENTS AND ITS MEANING FOR GROWTH

The two most important variables in the global economy: The dollar – Euro exchange rate and the price of oil went through major adjustment and created groundbreaking economic, monetary and financial shifts in the Global economy. The global economy is going through strong and complex crosscurrents. There are many opposing forces at play.

v The New Normal of Dollar – Euro exchange rate

v How sustainable are the current levels of oil prices. Will prices remain low for a sustained period of time? Can we consider it as the new normal?

v What are the implications of the fall of oil prices in terms of cost structure, demand growth and production?

v What will be the growth effect of falling prices on the global economy? How lower prices affect different economies and regions?

v Is the shock permanent, transitory? Will it boost global demand and bring back global imbalances in the medium term?

v Redistribution of wealth in the Global Economy

Chair:

Speakers:

• Erbolat Dossayev, Minister of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan
• Nouriel Roubini,Professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business, Chairman of Roubini Global Economics
• David Shark, Deputy Director-General, WTO
• Mikhail Gutseriev, President of Russian oil company “Russneft” (TBC)

09:30-11:00

PLENARY SESSION: (Venue: Congress hall 2, ground floor)

THE UNPREDICTABLE GLOBAL ECONOMY: THE SEARCH FOR GROWTH AND STABILITY

v The complexity of the global economy. What is at play?

v China New Normal and its meaning for the global economy

v Poor performance of growth prospects in emerging economies. What went wrong?

v Why long-term potential rate of growth have been revised on the downward?

v Who are the new drivers of growth in Global economy?

v Is there a sense of new financial crisis in emerging markets?

Chair:

Linda Yueh, Chief Business Correspondent, Talking Business presenter, BBC

Speakers:

• Jacob Frenkel, Chairman, JP Morgan Chase International (TBC)
• Romano Prodi, Prime Minister of Italy (1996-1998, 2006-2008), President of the European Commission (1999-2004)
• Sergey Glazyev, Economic Adviser to the President of Russian Federation
• Justin Yifu Lin, Professor and Honorary Dean, National School of Development at Peking University, Former Chief Economist and Senior Vice President at the World Bank
• Yashwant Sinha, Former Finance Minister (1990–1991; 1998–2002) and Foreign Minister (2002-2004) of India 

11:00-11:20

COFFEE BREAK (Venue: Restaurant, ground floor)

11:20-13:00

Session 2 : (Venue: Congress hall 2, ground floor)

THE NEW DRIVERS OF GROWTH: ECONOMIC SHIFTS FROM MIDDLE INCOME TO HIGHER INCOME COUNTRIES

v Secular stagnation, Saving Glut and Inequality: The search for inclusive growth and the return to the link between growth and rise of income

v Reinvigorating Growth: Infrastructure investment as a new driver for growth. Challenges and Solutions for Infrastructure Development

v BRICS: growth slowdown in emerging giants

v Eurasian Economic Union: new center of growth

v AIIB, BRICS, the revival of Silk Road: New Underpinning for growth strategies?

Chair:

Mattia Romani, Managing Director, Country and Sector Economics, EBRD

Speakers:

• Erbolat Dossayev, Minister of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan
• Alexey Ulyukaev, Minister of economic development of the Russian Federation
• Shaukat Aziz, Prime Minister (2004-2007) and Minister of Finance (1999-2007) of Pakistan
• Aleksander Kwasniewski, President of Poland (1995-2005)
• Wencai Zhang, Vice-President, Asian Development Bank
• Dmitry Pankin, Chairman of Eurasian Development Bank Management Board
• Debora Revoltella, Chief Economist, European Investment Bank
• Hans Timmer, Chief Economist of the World Bank's Europe and Central Asia region
• Oleg Preksin, B20 Sherpa for Russia, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs International Cooperation Committee, Vice President of the Association of Russian Banks

13:00-14:30

LUNCH (Venue: Restaurant, ground floor)

Part II. THE SEARCH FOR FINANCIAL STABILITY

14:30-16:00

Session 3: (Venue: Congress hall 2, ground floor)

THE HETEROGEINITY OF MONETARY POLICY AROUND THE WORLD AND ITS MEANING FOR GROWTH

(Organized in cooperation with the National Bank of Kazakhstan)

v The world monetary experiment: Are central Banks losing control?

v Is Quantitative easing becoming global?

v Prospects of US Normalization of Monetary policy and its implications for emerging economies

v Are reserve accumulation by Central banks in the last decade is over?

v De-dollarization: what can we learn from other countries

v China and the new geography of the international finance

Chair

Marc Uzan, Executive Director, Reinventing Bretton-Woods Committee

Speakers:

• Kairat Kelimbetov, Chairman of the National bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan
• Nouriel Roubini, Professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business, Chairman of Roubini Global Economics
• David Hale, Chairman, David Hale Global Economics
• Ksenia Yudaeva, First Deputy Governor of the Bank of Russia (TBC)
• Alfred Gusenbauer, Chancellor of the Republic of Austria (2007-2008)
• Domingo Cavallo, Senior Fellow of the Institute for Global Affairs, Yale University, Minister of Economy (1991-1996, 2001), President of the Central Bank of Argentina (1982)
• Massimiliano Castelli, Global Head of Strategy, Global Sovereign Markets, UBS

16:00-16:20

COFFEE BREAK (Venue: Restaurant, ground floor)

16:20-18:00

Session 4: (Venue: Congress hall 2, ground floor)

MANAGING SPILLOVERS IN CENTRAL ASIA AND NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES: POLICY OPTIONS

(Organized in cooperation with the IMF and National Bank of Kazakhstan)

v What has been the impact so far on growth?

v What have been the impacts on exchange rates?

v What are the channels of spillovers from Russia (trade, FDI, remittances, banks, exchange rates, etc.)?

v Impact of spillovers from Russia to Eurasian Economic Union, China and its Silk Road strategy

v What are the channels of spillovers from lower oil prices (including real effects, and through problems for the banking sector)?

v How well are financial systems handling the shocks?

v Are currencies in CCA countries misaligned in view of ruble’s depreciation (dollar appreciation)?

v Should exchange rates be more flexible?

v What policy responses have countries followed so far?

v What are appropriate policies?

Chair: Juha Kahkonen, Deputy Director of Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF (confirmed)

Speakers:

• Kairat Kelimbetov, Chairman of the National bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan
• Abdigulov Tolkynbek, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic Kyrgyzstan
• Herman Gref, Chairman, Sberbank, Russian Federation
• Timur Suleimenov, Minister for the Economy and Financial Policy, Eurasian Economic Commission
• Clemens Grafe, Chief Economist for Russia and CIS, Co-Head of New Markets economic research, Goldman Sachs
• Natalia Khanzhenkova, Managing Director, Turkey and Central Asia, EBRD
• Hossein Samiei, Division chief, Middle East and Central Asia department, IMF

Concluding remarks:

• Erbolat Dossayev, Minister of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan

20:00

DINNER ON BEHALF OF THE GOVERNMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN (Venue: TBD) (for speakers and by invitations only, venue to be confirmed)